CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2015 Sep 19 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50919
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Sep 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Sep 2015 until 21 Sep 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2015  10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 018
COMMENT: NOAA 2415 has lost its delta, but remains magnetically complex. No
(zero) C-class flares were observed during the period. The coronal mass
ejection (CME) associated to the long duration event on 18 September (C2.6
flare peaking at 06:31UT) was directed to the south of the ecliptic. A
glancing blow can not be excluded and could arrive late on 20 or on 21
September.

C-class flares are expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from
NOAA 2415.

Solar wind speed varied mostly between 410 and 450 km/s. Around 03:00UT, a
gradual change in solar wind temperature and Bz was observed, accompanied
by a mild increase in density and, around 05:00UT, a change in the
direction of the interplanetary magnetic field from away to towards the
Sun. Bz varied between -8 and +7 nT, being predominantly negative between
05:00 and 09:00UT. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed in
Dourbes, while the Kp-index reached minor storming during the 06-09UT
interval. Further data are awaited to pinpoint the source of the observed
disturbance.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic
storming is still possible on 19 or on 20 September in response to the
anticipated arrival of the solar wind stream of the positive
transequatorial coronal hole. Late on 20 or on 21 September, the glancing
blow of the 18 September CME may arrive at Earth, but currently only active
geomagnetic conditions are expected.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 061, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Sep 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 103
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 026
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 014
ESTIMATED ISN          : 067, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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